Notable Today
Summary: Getting busier, with 29 data releases tracked, generating four shocks and four surprises each.
US (7 tracked)
Shock! 2Q GDP 2nd Est Revised Down to 2.1% annualized from 2.4% prelim
o Personal Consumption +1.7%, Govt Consumption & Investment +3.3%
o Private Non-Residential Investment +6.2%, Residential Investment down 3.6%
o Exports Down 10.6% and Imports Down 7%
o Net Exports Strip 0.22pts from Growth; Private Inventory Movt Strip 0.09pts from Growth
Surprise! July Pending Home Sales Gains +0.9% mom, but Down 14% yoy
o Rising: South +2% mom and Down 10.9% yoy; West +6.2% mom and Down 12.8% yoy
o Falling: Midwest Down 04% mom and Down 16% yoy; Northeast Down 5.8% mom and Down 20.2% yoy
Surprise! July Wholesale Inventories advance Fall 0.1% mom Only
o Durables Goods Down 0.3% mom and +5.1% yoy
o Non-Durables +0.2% mom and Down 6% yoy
Europe (18 tracked)
Shock! Germany July New Car Registrations Rise +18.1% yoy Only
o Monthly Movt is 1.1SDs Below Historic Seasonal Trends
o Battery Electric +68.9% yoy, Hybrid Electric +46.6%, Petrol +12.5%
o Plug-in Hybrid Down 39.5% yoy, Diesel +2.7% Only
Shock! Germany July Export Prices Fall 3.2% yoy
o Monthly Fall of 0.3% mom is 1.4SDs Below Historic Seasonal Trends
o Largest yoy Fall Since Sept 2009
o Drags: Energy Export Prices Down 54.7% yoy, Petroleum Products Down 29.1%
o Agricultural Goods Down 6% yoy, Intermediates Down 4.1%
o Positive Offsets: Capital Goods +4.2% yoy, Consumer Goods +2.8%
o Import Prices Fall 0.6% mom, so Terms of Trade Improve 0.2% mom and 11% yoy
Surprise! Italy August Consumer Confidence Dips 0.2pts Only to 106.5
o Drags: Economic Climate Down 1.9pts to 121.5, Expectations Down 0.9pts to 114.1
o Positive Offsets: Personal Climate +0.4pts to 101.5, Current Situation up 0.4pts to 101.4
Asia (4 tracked)
Shock! Japan August Consumer Confidence Drops 0.9pts to 36.2
o Exactly Reverses July’s Gain
o Employment Confidence Down 1.3pts to 42.7, Willingness to Buy down 1.1pts to 30
o O’all Livelihood Down 1pts to 329, but Confidence in Income Growth Down 0.2pts Only to 39
Surprise! Australia July CPI Rises +4.9% yoy Only
o Monthly Rise of 0.3% mom is 2.1SDs Below Historic Seasonal Trends
o Inflation Drivers: Housing 7.3%, o/w Electricity +15.7%, Gas +13.9%
o Insurance/Finance Servs +8.5%, F&B(dry) +5.6%
o Inflation Dampers: Clothing & Footwear +1.5% yoy, Transport +0.3%, Comms +0.3%
A modern economy circulating products and services throughout the world doesn’t need money or sovereign countries (national currencies) to be successful. Today, we’ve the scientific knowledge and technological skills to convert our natural and artificial resources into daily life-sustaining deliverables: food, housing, education, healthcare, infrastructure, and employment demands. What we lack is unity, a global framework built upon fair and humane laws and safe and healthy industrial practices. I hypothesize that humanity can end poverty and reduce pollution by abandoning wealth and property rights, and instead adopt and implement an advanced resource management system that can provide “universal protections for all”. Replacing customary political competition altogether, this type of approach, which I named facts-based representation, allows us a better way to govern ourselves and our communities, basing policy and decision making on the latest information, in turn improving the everyday outcomes impacting our personal and professional lives.
#ScientificSocialism