Macro Kernel - 27th April
Notable Today
The US 1Q GDP result can honestly be said to be ‘mixed’ - a verdict which will satisfy none of the US’s politically-committed commentariat. But ‘mixed’ is still the right word.
Good News: Private consumption still robust at 3.7% annualized, supported by govt spending at 4.7%.
Good News: Once you strip out the impact of inventory changed, final sales of domestic product rose a healthy 3.9%.
Good News: 12m Kalecki profits up 8.2% qoq and 10% yoy. Yes, really: full accounting in separate piece later today.
Bad News: Fixed capital spending down 0.4% annualized, with non-residential up 0.7% only, and residential down 4.2%.
Bad News: GDP deflator rose to 4% (vs 3.9% in 4Q), with personal consumption deflator rising to 4.2% (vs 3.7% in 4Q).
Bad News: Nominal worker compensation up just 1.5% qoq (vs 1.6% in 4Q), annualizing to 6.1% (vs 6.5% in 4Q)
Summary: 22 data releases tracked today, with six surprises and five shocks.
US (5 tracked)
Shock! 1Q GDP 1st estimate Rises 1.1% Annualized Only
o Private Consumption +3.7%, Govt Spending +4.7%
o Private Investment Down 0.4%, with Non-Residential +0.7%, Residential Down 4.2%
o Exports +4.8%, Imports +2.9%, with Net Exports Adding 1.1pps to GDP
o Private Inventories Change Strip 2.26pps to Growth
o Final Sales of Domestic Product +3.9%
o GDP Deflator 4% (vs 3.9% in 4Q), with Personal Consumption Deflator 4.2% (vs 3.7%)
Shock! March Pending Home Sales Drop 5.2% mom and Down 23.3% yoy
o South +0.2% mom and Down 19.8% yoy
o West Down 8% mom, Midwest Down 10.7%, Northeast Down 8.1%
Surprise! Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims Dip 3k to 1.858mn
o California is 24.6% of Total, New York 9.4% & New Jersey 5.6%; Texas 7.1%
o Insured Jobless Rate Unchanged at 1.3%, with California 2.4%, New Jersey 2.4%, Massachusetts 2.1%
Europe (9 tracked)
Shock! Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Falls 2.1pts to Minus 2.6
o Most Negative Since Jan 2021
o O’all Order Books, Export Orders Fall; Finished Inventories Seen as Too High
o Standout Shock: France Down 5.9pts to Minus 10.4, Worst Since Dec 2020
o Germany Down 1.2pts to Minus 1.3, Italy Down 1.1pts to Minus 1.8, but Spain up 1.8pts to Minus 1.4
Shock! Italy April Manufacturing Confidence Falls 1.1pts to 103
o O’all Economic Sentiment up 0.4pts to 11.5
o Construction up 5.1pts to 164.2, Services up 1.6pts to 105.5, Retail Down 2.7pts to 113
Surprise! Spain March Retail Sales Volume Jumps +9.7% yoy
o Monthly Movt is 2.4Sds Above Historic Seasonal Trends
o Services Station Sales +17.5%, Others +9.1%
o Food Down 2% yoy, but Non-Food +23.1%
o Personal Equipt +28.3%, H’hold Equipt +0.3%, Other Goods +18.1%
Shock! Spain 1Q Unemployment Rate Rises 0.4pps qoq to 13.3%
o Male Rate up 25bps to 11.6%, Female Rate up 52bps to 15.1%
o Employment Down 11.1k, Unemployment up 103.8, Inactivity up 44.9k
o Demographics: Aged 40-44 Down 55.6k, 25-39 Down 20.6k, 16-19 Down 16k
o Job Gains: Aged 55+ up 40.5k, 50-54 up 25.7k
Asia (8 tracked)
Surprise! S Korea April Economic Sentiment Index Gains 2.3pts to 93.8
o Strongest Since Oct 2022
o BOK Manufacturing up 3pts to 69, Non-Manufacturing up 1pt to 73
o Consumer Confidence up 3l1pts to 95.1, Best Since June 2022
o Cyclical Component Falls 0.8pts to 90.1, Lowest Since Nov 2020
Surprise! Australia 1Q Export Prices Rise +1.6% qoq and +6.9% yoy
o Drivers: Metal Ores +16.9% qoq, Crude Fertilizers & Minerals +23.9%, Gold +4.9%
o Drags: Gas Down 15.2% qoq, Coal & Coke Down 5.6%, Meat Down 16.7%
o Import Prices Down 4.2% qoq, so Terms of Trade Improve 5.8% qoq and +1.8% yoy
Surprise! Australia 1Q Import Prices Fall 4.2% qoq and +4.7% yoy
o Price Falls: Petroleum & Products Down 16.6% qoq, Fertilizer Down 36%, Electrical Machinery Down 4.7%
o Price Rises: Specialized Machinery +5.2% qoq, Vehicles +1.5%
Surprise! Japan Feb Leading Index Revised up to 98
o Drivers: Inventory Ratio for Intermediates, Machinery Orders, SME Sales F’casts
o Drags: Housing Starts, New Job Offers
