I have argued that the current US cycle is ‘dying of lack’, but that this means not recession, but rather the transition to a new cycle. Yes, I’m saying that ‘it’s different this time’, which means there’s long odds (about 4:1) against my being right. This piece explains why I’m prepared to take those odds, and considers the break-out in business start-ups seen in the US during 4Q - precisely during the period of darkest consumer depression measured so far this century. Madness, or the transition emerging?
A Dash of Coldwater Economics
Funk, Start-ups and Cyclical Transition
Funk, Start-ups and Cyclical Transition
In which my new AI friends give voice to the latest Informed / Informal email
A Dash of Coldwater Economics
Scan Widely, Watch Closely. For years I've tracked around 500 data-sets from the world's leading economies every month to produce the most data-rich suite of shocks & surprises indexes. When something catches my eye, this daily podcasts talks about it . . . briefly.
Scan Widely, Watch Closely. For years I've tracked around 500 data-sets from the world's leading economies every month to produce the most data-rich suite of shocks & surprises indexes. When something catches my eye, this daily podcasts talks about it . . . briefly.
